Mathematical Modelling of Cholera Transmission incorporating Media Coverage.
Abstract
Cholera is a gastrointestinal disease caused by a bacterium called Vibrio cholerae. The spread of the disease depends largely on social and environmental factors such as, eating food or drinking water contaminated with feaces from an infected person. Cholera outbreaks, for instance, in Uganda have led to deaths and hospitalization. Since cholera spreads and kills very fast, the effectiveness of control strategies such as vaccination, water chlorination and therapeutic treatment may be enhanced by the use of media alert and awareness campaigns. This aspect has not been considered in existing cholera models. In this study, the impact of media coverage on the spread of cholera was investigated using a mathematical model. The specific objectives of the study were to construct a mathematical model for cholera transmission incorporating media coverage, to analyse the stability of equilibrium points of the model and to evaluate the role of media coverage as a disease control strategy. Positivity and boundedness of solutions was established to ensure that the model was biologically meaningful. The model was thereafter analyzed using the stability theory of differential equations. The basic reproduction number Ra, was derived using the next generation matrix approach. The existence of equilibrium points of the model was determined. The results of stability analysis showed that the disease free equilibrium was locally asymptotically stable when R< 1 while the endemic equilibrium was locally asymptotically stable when R> 1. p which is the efficacy of media coverage has an inverse relationship with the spread of the disease, such that whenever it is high, the disease spread reduces and when it is low, the disease spread increases. This implies that, media alert and awareness campaigns are vital in controlling the spread of cholera. Based on this study, it is recommended that health practitioners embrace the use of efficacious means of media coverage to publicize awareness campaigns of an outbreak and the preventive measures.
Description
Keywords
Mathematical Modelling, Cholera Transmission, incorporating, Media Coverage
Citation
Muhereza, Obed (2019). Mathematical Modelling of Cholera Transmission incorporating Media Coverage. Kabale: Kabale University.