Kabale University Digital Repository (KAB-DR)
    • Login
    View Item 
    •   KAB-DR Home
    • Research Articles
    • Faculty of Economics and Management Sciences (FEMS)
    • View Item
    •   KAB-DR Home
    • Research Articles
    • Faculty of Economics and Management Sciences (FEMS)
    • View Item
    JavaScript is disabled for your browser. Some features of this site may not work without it.

    Stochastic Modelling of the Dynamics of the SARS-CoV-2 Epidemic: An Africa Perspective

    Thumbnail
    View/Open
    Main Article (263.0Kb)
    Date
    2021
    Author
    Rasaki, Olawale Olanrewaju
    Nafiu, Lukman Abiodun
    Abdisalam, Hassan Muse
    Thierno, Souleymane Barry
    Metadata
    Show full item record
    Abstract
    Africa being one of the seven (7) continents is not exempted in the epidemic catastrophe of the respiratory virus called SARS-CoV-2 battling the world. Africa in its totality has been enforcing containment measures to prevent, curb, reduce and contain the widespread of the virus via social-distancing, curfews, economic lockdown in phases. In this paper, we modelled the course of action of the SARS-CoV-2 virus in Africa and its five regions at approximately a year (as at 23/02/2021) of the pandemic via a five transitional compartments SIERD (Susceptible → Exposed→ Infected →Recovery → Dead) model. The datasets for the number of confirmed cases of the virus as well as the number of recoveries and deaths due to the virus as at 23/02/2021 were extracted from Africa Centre for Disease Control (Africa CDC). It was carved-out from the SIERD model, that the rate of contracting the virus in Africa during each individual contact is 36.61%, while the rate in the Central, Eastern, Northern, Southern and Western parts were estimated to be 21.73%, 62.43%, 72.45% and 16.43 respectively. However, the recovery rate from the SARS-CoV-2 infection was 66.35% with Central, Western and Eastern regions dominating with 99.12%, 99.26% and 84.32% rates respectively. Lastly, the overall Infection Fatality rate in Africa was estimated to be 26.16%, while it carted across the Central, Eastern, Northern, Southern and Western regions with 15.3%, 20.4%, 31.6%, 39.4%, and 24.1% respectively.
    URI
    http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12493/485
    Collections
    • Faculty of Economics and Management Sciences (FEMS) [39]

    KAB-DR
    Contact Us | Send Feedback
    Kabale University
     

     

    Browse

    All of KAB-DRCommunities & CollectionsBy Issue DateAuthorsTitlesSubjectsThis CollectionBy Issue DateAuthorsTitlesSubjects

    My Account

    LoginRegister

    KAB-DR
    Contact Us | Send Feedback
    Kabale University