Browsing by Author "Nafiu, Lukman Abiodun"

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    A Model for Organizational Preparedness of SMEs During COVID-19 Pandemic in Kigezi Sub-region in South Western Uganda.
    (Kabale University, 2023) Tamwesigire, Caleb; Nafiu, Lukman Abiodun
    The outbreak of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has severely affected the global and Uganda economy with major victims being small, and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). The study examined and developed a model for organizational preparedness and business disaster of SMEs during COVID-19 pandemic in Kigezi sub-region in South Western Uganda. The specific objectives were to: (i)determine the characteristics of decision makers of SMEs during the COVID-19 pandemic; (ii) assess organizational features of SMEs during the COVID-19 pandemic; (iii) examine government response and preparedness of SMEs during the COVID-19 pandemic; and (iv) model the relationship between those factors identified with organizational preparedness and the management of SMEs during the COVID-19 pandemic. A cross-sectional survey research design was employed and interviewer-administered questionnaire as a research tool was used to elicit information from the managers of SMEs across the six (6) districts of Kigezi sub-region. Two-stage cluster sampling technique was used and the sample size was computed using Yamane’s sampling formulae based on a 5% level of precision. The value of CVI obtained was 0.840 while the value of reliability obtained was 0.770, which indicated that the questionnaire items were relevant and suitable for the study. Five hundred and ninety one (591) questionnaires were administered to the SME owners/managers while four hundred and seventy six (476) questionnaires were returned, giving the overall return rate as 81%. The study identifies the factors that were significant with organizational preparednessand the management of business during the COVID-19 pandemic in the Kigezi sub-region in South Western Uganda as firm size, firm financial condition, risk perception, government subsidy, help received from NGOs and the loan received from the bank/SACCO; while other factors: firm year of existence, source of initial capital, and gender of owners/managers were found to be insignificant. The results showed that organizational features, characteristics of decision makers and government response accounts for a total of 27.9% improvement on the management of business disaster in the Kigezi sub-region. The results further indicate that organizational features (β=0.163, p-value=0.000) and characteristics of decision makers (β=0.021, p-value=0.648) have positive but significant effect while government response (β=-0.780, p-value=0.682) have negative but no significant effect on the management of business disaster. The study concludes that organizational features and characteristics of decision makers are important factors that affected the organizational preparedness and the management of business during COVID-19 pandemic in Kigezi sub-region in South Western Uganda. The study recommends that SME owners/managers should focus on improving their firms’ features; perfect the way they make decision by providing a critical dynamic resilience strategy framework to manage their SMEs during the crisis period. There is also need for government/NGO interventions in the area of subsidy for SME owners/managers during the pandemic to boost their businesses. Keywords: Organizational Features, Business Disaster, Decision makers, Pandemic, COVID
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    Analysis of Monetary Policy Objectives as Applied to Uganda’s Economy: The Dream to Achieve the Middle-Income Status in 2020 is Gone
    (International Journal of Research in Engineering, IT and Social Sciences, 2020) George Stanley, Kinyata; Nafiu, Lukman Abiodun
    This article analyses the effects of monetary policies in terms of monetary objectives, and instruments which are used by most monetary authorities to manage the requirements of the country’s economy and how they influence economic activities of the country. The study is centered on four policy objectives which Bank of Uganda has been using namely; full employment, price stability which includes controlling inflation and economic fluctuations, economic growth and maintenance of balance of payment equilibrium. The instruments which are bank rates, open market operations, change in reserve ratios and selective credit controls used by the central bank are dealt with in this study. Though the economic growth figures of Uganda’s economy have been in the range of 3.0 % to 6.1 % for many years, this has not demonstrated the general growth of income of Ugandans during the same period. According to the World Bank in 2019, Uganda with its population of over 42 million people has a gross domestic product of US $ 33.6 million and is placed number 3 after Kenya and Tanzania. However, in economic growth, it is number 4, after Rwanda, Tanzania and Kenya respectively. This questions the ability of the country to achieve the middle-income status by 2020 as had been predicted. The weaknesses in implementation of the monetary objectives which caused the government failure to achieve Uganda’s goal and finally the important strategies and areas which Uganda should use to generate high rates of economic growth to transfer in the economy and maintain macroeconomic stability are recommended in this aricle.
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    Application of Discrete-time semi-Markov Model to the Stochastic forecasting of Capital assests as stock.
    (Far East Journal of theoretical Statistics, 2021) Nafiu, Lukman Abiodun; Patrick, Weke; Alieu Jallow, Mamadou; Carolyne, Ogutu
    In this paper, we developed and applied a stochastic model based on Discrete-time Semi Markov chain approach and its generalizations to study the high frequency price dynamics of traded stocks. Semi Markov is a stochastic process that generalizes both the Markov chain and the Markov renewal processes. it is well known that the performances of the stock market or factors that move stock prices are technical factors, fundamental factors and market sentiments.
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    A feasibility of land consolidation in kigezi region, south western Uganda: a solution to land fragmentation, land shortage, farmer’s productivity and economic development
    (Kabale University Interdisciplinary Research Journal, 2021) George Stanley, Kinyata; Nafiu, Lukman Abiodun
    The cooperative societies which have existed in Uganda for a longtime have been mainly on Agricultural products and marketing and not necessarily on land use management and productivity. This article therefore, is about land use management and the reverse of the effects of land fragmentation and their related problems such as land conflicts, population pressure, poverty, productivity, and land scarcity and the solutions to these problems. The idea of land consolidation is being introduced in the article as putting together plots or pieces of land which exist in Kigezi Region, with the aim of making them economically viable and more productive per unit of investment. This need not change the amount of land owned and controlled by individuals, and therefore not necessarily an instrument of social justice but an answer to land scarcity and fragmentation in Kigezi Region. The article compares the benefits of the land under fragmentation and the land under consolidation systems and recommends strategies to transform Kigezi Region’s informal and subsistence farming system to modern, commercial agriculture to achieve food security and increase incomes of the population and economic development of the area.
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    Fréchet Random Noise for k-Regime-Switching Mixture Autoregressive Model
    (American Journal of Mathematics and Statistics, 2021) Rasaki, Olawale Olanrewaju; Anthony, Gichuhi Waititu; Nafiu, Lukman Abiodun
    This paper describes Fréchet distribution as a random noise for capturing multimodalities, regime-switching and change-points attributed to uniformly time-varying series via causality of fluctuations, extreme values and heavy-tailed time series. Fréchet Mixture Autoregressive (FMAR) model of k-regime-switching, denoted by FMAR(k; p1, p2 ,, pk ) was developed and Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm was used as a method of parameter estimation for the embedded coefficients of AR of k-mixing weights and lag pk. The limiting distribution of the FMAR(k; p1, p2 ,, pk ) model via Gnedenko-Fisher Tippet limiting property was derived to asymptotically approach an exponential function.
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    Manufacturing Export Performance: A Trend Analysis Approach
    (INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF APPLIED MATHEMATICS AND INFORMATICS, 2021) Nafiu, Lukman Abiodun; George Stanley, Kinyata
    The study examined the export performance using a trend analysis approach. A graphical demonstration showing the trend of export performance in Nigeria over time was displayed. It also identifies the major determinants of manufacture exports in Nigeria using ordinary least square approach which shows that an increase in the average tariff rate would lead to a decline in the manufacturing exports and its statistically significant at the 5% level of significance. Capacity utilization has a negative and insignificant with manufactured exports. Also, there is a positive and significant relationship between exchange rate and trade openness at 1 and 5% level of significance respectively.
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    Micro-Credit Institutions’ Services and Sustainability of Micro, Small and Medium-Scale Enterprises During Covid-19 Pandemic in Kigezi Region, South Western Uganda.
    (Kabale University, 2022) Agaba, Moses; Kaaya, Siraj; Nafiu, Lukman Abiodun
    The study examined the effect of Microcredit institutions' services on the sustainability of micro, small and medium-size enterprises of the Kigezi region, South Western Uganda during the Covid-19 pandemic. The specific objectives were to: determine the effect of loan provision by microcredit institutions on the sustainability of MSMEs; determine the effect of the provision of the saving account by microcredit institutions sustainability of MSMEs, and, investigate the effect of the provision of Managerial skills on the sustainability of MSMEs during Covid-19 pandemic in Kigezi Sub-Region, Uganda. The study was conducted in the Kigezi region of Uganda. The region has six (6) districts namely: Kabale, Kisoro, Kanungu, Rukungiri, Rubanda and Rukiga. The Kigezi region is situated in Southwestern Uganda. It is a very hilly, cold and mountainous region bordering the Republic of Rwanda and the Democratic Republic of Congo. Because of its hills, mountains and cold weather, people call it the Switzerland of Africa. It is full of Agricultural Terraces and is home to the world-famous mountain gorillas. According to the National Census of 2014 and the Uganda Bureau of Statistics (UBOS) Household survey of 2016, the region has a population of about 1.5 million people from the six (6) districts (Kabale, Kanungu, Rukungiri, Rubanda, Rukiga and Kisoro). The sample size was computed using Yamane's sampling formulae (Yamane, 1967) and was based on a 5% level of precision. A cluster sampling procedure was applied to select the enterprises' respondents. Enterprise owners and managers were the units of inquiry due to their importance as custodians of information on all the activities taking place in their respective MSMEs (Rhodes, 2009). The research population was divided into clusters (areas or districts) and the required sample was selected using simple random sampling. The study used an interviewer-administered structured questionnaire to collect the data. The value of CVI obtained was 0.78 while the value of reliability obtained was 0.767, which indicates that the questionnaire items were relevant and suitable for the study. Three hundred and twelve (312) questionnaires were administered while a total of two hundred and ninety-four (294) MSMEs returned the filled questionnaires, giving the return rate as 94.2%. The results indicate that a one-unit increase in Loan Provision would cause about 0.048 unit increase in Sustainability of MSMEs; one-unit increase in Saving Account would produce about 0.125 unit increase in Sustainability of MSMEs, and one-unit increase in Training on Managerial Skills would bring about 0.309 unit increase in Sustainability of MSMEs. This suggests that increases in Loan Provision; Saving Accounts; and Training in Managerial Skills help to increase Sustainability. The study concludes that loan provision by microcredit institutions did not sustain MSMEs during the Covid-19 pandemic in Kigezi Sub-Region Uganda; accessing an adequate amount of credit is an important factor in increasing the development and growth of SMEs; and, increasing Saving accounts and Training on Managerial Skills will increase Micro-credit Institutions’ Serviceability of MSMEs. The researchers recommend the use of sensitization of the clients and the use of other marketing tools. The researchers also recommend Emphasizing training (managerial skills), especially in financial management to support their clients to improve their business performance regularly and most cases should be tailored toward the training needs of the clients
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    Micro-credit institution’s services and sustainability of micro, small and medium-scale enterprises during Covid-19 pandemic in Kigezi region south western Uganda
    (Kabale University Interdisciplinary Research Journal (KURJ), 2022) Moses, Agaba; Siraje, Kaaya; Nafiu, Lukman Abiodun
    The study examined the effect of Microcredit institutions’ services on the sustainability of micro, small and medium size enterprises during the Covid-19 pandemic of the Kigezi region, South Western Uganda. The specific objectives were to: determine the effect of loan provision by microcredit institutions on the sustainability of MSMEs; determine the effect of the provision of the saving account by microcredit institutions sustainability of MSMEs, The study was conducted in the Kigezi region of Uganda. The region has six (6) districts namely: Kabale, Kisoro, Kanungu, Rukungiri, Rubanda and Rukiga. The Kigezi region is situated in Southwestern Uganda. The sample size was computed using Yamane’s sampling formulae and was based on a 5% level of precision. The research used both descriptive and cross-sectional surveys to gather information from various MSMEs records and panel procedures as well as a supplementary interview as methods of data collection. A cluster sampling procedure was applied to select the enterprises’ respondents. Enterprises’ owners and managers were the units of inquiry due to their importance as custodians of information on all the activities taking place in their respective MSMEs. The research population was divided into clusters (areas or districts) and the required sample was selected using simple random sampling. The study used an interviewer-administered structured questionnaire to collect the data. This suggests that increases in Loan Provision and Saving Accounts help to increase Sustainability. Results further indicate that of the aspects of Sustainability of MSMEs, Loan Provision has no significant effect ( =0.048, Sig=0.279); Saving Account has a significant effect ( =0.125, Sig=0.001); and Training on Managerial Skills has a significant effect ( =0.309, Sig=0.000). The study concludes that loan provision by microcredit institutions did not sustain MSMEs during the Covid-19 pandemic in Kigezi Sub-Region Uganda, accessing an adequate amount of credit is an important factor in increasing the development and growth of SMEs and increasing Saving accounts will increase Micro-credit Institutions Serviceability of MSMEs. The researchers recommend the use of sensitization of the clients and the use of other marketing tools.
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    On the Estimation of k-Regimes Switching of Mixture Autoregressive Model via Weibull Distributional Random Noise
    (International Journal of Probability and Statistics, 2021) Rasaki, Olawale Olanrewaju; Anthony, Gichuhi Waititu; Nafiu, Lukman Abiodun
    This paper describes regime-switching, full range of shape changing distributions (multimodalities), and cycles traits that were characterized by time-varying series via Weibull distributional noise for time series with fluctuations and long-memory. We developed and established a Weibull Mixture Autoregressive model of k-regimes via WMAR(k; p1, p2, , pk ) with Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm adopted as parameter estimation technique. The ergodic process for the WMAR(k; p1, p2, , pk ) model was ascertained via the maximized derivation of the absolute value of the subtraction of its likelihood from its expected likelihood.
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    Statistical Analysis of Informal Settlements and Environmental Management in Mbale Municipality, Uganda
    (International Journal of Research in Engineering, IT and Social Sciences, 2020) Mustafe, Hassan Abdi; Nafiu, Lukman Abiodun; George Stanley, Kinyata
    The study examined the impact of informal settlement on environmental management. Selfadministered questionnaire and interview guide were used to gather information from one hundred and forty-five household respondents and seven key informants in Namatala ward. The data collected were then analysed with the aid of Statistical Package for Social Sciences. The study identified the socioeconomic effects of informal settlements which include road inaccessibility, poor waste collection, and poor waste disposal, inadequate open space for dumping, and rapid production of waste and community conflicts. Results indicated that environmental management in informal settlements depend on community role. Findings have shown that a strong positive relationship exist between community role and environmental management which is statistically significant. Results have also revealed that community role and education level of community have 42.2% effect on environmental management in informal settlement which is statistically significant. The study recommends that community should play roles in managing the environment and identify possible strategies to improve environmental management in informal settlements. Therefore, there is a need to sensitize the local community on environmental education in order to improve environmental management in informal settlements. Local governments should implement community infrastructure upgrading. NGOs and local governments need to conduct domestic waste minimization campaign. There is also need to provide economic incentives to the poor in urban community. Local officials at all levels should cooperate so as to make easy the inspection of developments during construction.
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    Stochastic Modelling of the Dynamics of the SARS-CoV-2 Epidemic: An Africa Perspective
    (American Journal of Mathematics and Statistics, 2021) Rasaki, Olawale Olanrewaju; Nafiu, Lukman Abiodun; Abdisalam, Hassan Muse; Thierno, Souleymane Barry
    Africa being one of the seven (7) continents is not exempted in the epidemic catastrophe of the respiratory virus called SARS-CoV-2 battling the world. Africa in its totality has been enforcing containment measures to prevent, curb, reduce and contain the widespread of the virus via social-distancing, curfews, economic lockdown in phases. In this paper, we modelled the course of action of the SARS-CoV-2 virus in Africa and its five regions at approximately a year (as at 23/02/2021) of the pandemic via a five transitional compartments SIERD (Susceptible → Exposed→ Infected →Recovery → Dead) model. The datasets for the number of confirmed cases of the virus as well as the number of recoveries and deaths due to the virus as at 23/02/2021 were extracted from Africa Centre for Disease Control (Africa CDC). It was carved-out from the SIERD model, that the rate of contracting the virus in Africa during each individual contact is 36.61%, while the rate in the Central, Eastern, Northern, Southern and Western parts were estimated to be 21.73%, 62.43%, 72.45% and 16.43 respectively. However, the recovery rate from the SARS-CoV-2 infection was 66.35% with Central, Western and Eastern regions dominating with 99.12%, 99.26% and 84.32% rates respectively. Lastly, the overall Infection Fatality rate in Africa was estimated to be 26.16%, while it carted across the Central, Eastern, Northern, Southern and Western regions with 15.3%, 20.4%, 31.6%, 39.4%, and 24.1% respectively.
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    TRADE POLICY AND PERFORMANCE OF EXPORT MANUFACTURING INDUSTRIES
    (International Journal for research in Economics, 2021) Nafiu, Lukman Abiodun; Maiga, Issaka Hamadi
    This study examines the impact of trade policy and performance of export manufacturing industries. It adopts time series data on a number of policy variables to determine their impacts on the manufacture exports as well as their significance or otherwise in stimulating export. The objectives are to (a) identify the major determinants of manufacture exports; and (b) determine the causal relationship existing between manufacture exports and trade policy - Openness, exchange rate, average tariff rates and capacity utilization. Empirical analysis of the data from 1970 to 2014 using Vector autoregressive (VAR) model and granger co-integration test have produced interesting results. Specifically, all the results have ultimately confirmed that there is, indeed a significant relationship among manufacture exports, trade openness, exchange rate, average tariff rates and capacity utilization. It is recommended that there should be urgent need to diversify the economy away from single commodity oil; given the uncertainties in the world oil market, adopt policies that ensure greater market access for the country’s manufacture exports as well as boosting their competitiveness at the international market. These are achieved through the adoption of trade and exchange rate liberalization policies that are devoid of control and regulations and lastly, policy option to moderate import liberalization in order to reap the benefit of a positively related and significant exchange rate variable with manufacture exports within the framework of market determined exchange rate.