Modeling The Role Of Wild Birds and Environment in the Dynamics of Newcastle Disease in Village Chicken.
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Date
2018
Authors
Furaha, Chuma
Gasper G., Mwanga
Damian, Kajunguri
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
Science Asia
Abstract
Newcastle disease is common viral poultry disease which leads to a massive
killing of chicken if preventive measures are not well taken. In this paper, we develop and
analyze a deterministic model to investigate the role of wild birds and environment on
the transmission dynamics of Newcastle disease in village chicken. We compute the basic
reproduction number (R0), a threshold that tells the presence of the disease in a population.
Finally, we performed the sensitivity analysis of parameters to see their relationship with the
basic reproduction number (R0). The numerical results show that the basic reproduction
number (R0) is more sensitive to the contact rate between the susceptible village chicken,
wild birds and contaminated environment. This implies that, more contamination of the
Newcastle virus into the environment increase the chance for the repeatedly occurrence of
the disease. The results also shows that increasing the clearance rate of Newcastle disease
virus in the environment reduces the rate of spread of the disease in chicken population.
Therefore, contaminated environment plays a crucial role in the transmission of Newcastle
diseases in the village chicken population.
Description
Keywords
Newcastle disease (ND), Newcastle disease Virus(NDV), Village chicken, Wild birds, Environment.