Browsing by Author "Dmitry, Kuznetsov"

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    Modeling and analysis of taeniasis and cysticercosis transmission dynamics in humans, pigs and cattle
    (Springer, 2021) Joshua, A. Mwasunda; Jacob I, Irunde; Damian, Kajunguri; Dmitry, Kuznetsov
    Taeniasis and cysticercosis pose a significant challenge to food safety and public health. Cysticercosis reduces the market value for pigs and cattle by making pork and beef unsafe for consumption. In this paper, a mathematical model for the transmission dynamics of taeniasis and cysticercosis in humans, pigs and cattle is formulated and analyzed. The analysis shows that both the disease free equilibrium (DFE) and the endemic equilibrium (EE) exist. To study the dynamics of the diseases, we derived the basic reproduction number R0 by next generation matrix method. When R0 < 1, the DFE is globally asymptotically stable whereas when R0 > 1 the EE is globally asymptotically stable. The normalized forward sensitivity index was used to determine sensitive parameters to the diseases. Humans’ recruitment rate, probability of humans’ infection with taeniasis and the defecation rate of taenia eggs by humans with taeniasis are the most positive sensitive parameters to diseases’ transmission whereas the human natural death rate is the most negative sensitive parameter. However, it is biologically unethical and not practical to increase human natural mortality rate for disease control. In this case, other parameters with negative sensitivity indices such as death rate of taenia eggs and proportions of unconsumed infected beef and pork can be considered for disease control. Generally, to control the diseases, more efforts should be made directed to reducing the number of humans who have taeniasis and defecate in the open environment. Also meat inspection and indoor keeping of cattle and pigs should be emphasized.
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    Optimal control and Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Taeniasis and Cysticercois in Humans, Pigs and Cattle.
    (Commun. Math. Biol. Neurosci, 2021) Joshua, A. Mwasunda; Jacob I, Irunde; Damian, Kajunguri; Dmitry, Kuznetsov
    Taeniasis and cysticercosis are neglected food-borne diseases that pose challenge to food safety, human health and livelihood of rural livestock farmers. In this paper, an optimal control problem for the dynamics and control of taeniasis and cysticercosis in humans, pigs and cattle with its cost-effectiveness analysis is presented and analysed to determine the optimal and cost-effective strategy for disease control. A combination of two or more time dependent controls involving vaccination of pigs and cattle, meat inspection, environmental hygiene and sanitation, and the treatment of humans who are infected with taeniasis is carried out to study their impacts on disease control. The Pontryagin’s maximum principle is adopted to find the necessary conditions for existence of the optimal controls. The Runge Kutta order four forward-backward sweep method is implemented to solve the optimal control problem. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) is applied to determine the most cost-effective strategy for disease control. The optimal control results indicate that the strategy which focus on the combination of all interventions or that exclude vaccination of pigs and cattle is the most effective optimal control strategy in disease control. However, cost-effectiveness analysis results show that a strategy which excludes vaccination of pigs and cattle is the most cost-effective strategy for disease control. Based on these results, we recommend that interventions which focus on meat inspection, treatment of humans who are infected with taeniasis and improvement in hygiene and sanitation should be considered to control the transmission of taeniasis and cysticercosis in humans, pigs and cattle at a minimal cost.