Modeling and analysis of taeniasis and cysticercosis transmission dynamics in humans, pigs and cattle
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Date
2021
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
Springer
Abstract
Taeniasis and cysticercosis pose a significant challenge to food safety and public
health. Cysticercosis reduces the market value for pigs and cattle by making pork and
beef unsafe for consumption. In this paper, a mathematical model for the
transmission dynamics of taeniasis and cysticercosis in humans, pigs and cattle is
formulated and analyzed. The analysis shows that both the disease free equilibrium
(DFE) and the endemic equilibrium (EE) exist. To study the dynamics of the diseases,
we derived the basic reproduction number R0 by next generation matrix method.
When R0 < 1, the DFE is globally asymptotically stable whereas when R0 > 1 the EE is
globally asymptotically stable. The normalized forward sensitivity index was used to
determine sensitive parameters to the diseases. Humans’ recruitment rate, probability
of humans’ infection with taeniasis and the defecation rate of taenia eggs by humans
with taeniasis are the most positive sensitive parameters to diseases’ transmission
whereas the human natural death rate is the most negative sensitive parameter.
However, it is biologically unethical and not practical to increase human natural
mortality rate for disease control. In this case, other parameters with negative
sensitivity indices such as death rate of taenia eggs and proportions of unconsumed
infected beef and pork can be considered for disease control. Generally, to control the
diseases, more efforts should be made directed to reducing the number of humans
who have taeniasis and defecate in the open environment. Also meat inspection and
indoor keeping of cattle and pigs should be emphasized.
Description
Keywords
Taeniasis; Cysticercosis; Reproduction number; Equilibria; Stability analysis; Sensitivity analysis