Stochastic Modelling of the Dynamics of the SARS-CoV-2 Epidemic: An Africa Perspective
Date
2021
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
American Journal of Mathematics and Statistics
Abstract
Africa being one of the seven (7) continents is not exempted in the epidemic catastrophe of the respiratory virus
called SARS-CoV-2 battling the world. Africa in its totality has been enforcing containment measures to prevent, curb,
reduce and contain the widespread of the virus via social-distancing, curfews, economic lockdown in phases. In this paper, we
modelled the course of action of the SARS-CoV-2 virus in Africa and its five regions at approximately a year (as at
23/02/2021) of the pandemic via a five transitional compartments SIERD (Susceptible → Exposed→ Infected →Recovery →
Dead) model. The datasets for the number of confirmed cases of the virus as well as the number of recoveries and deaths due
to the virus as at 23/02/2021 were extracted from Africa Centre for Disease Control (Africa CDC). It was carved-out from the
SIERD model, that the rate of contracting the virus in Africa during each individual contact is 36.61%, while the rate in the
Central, Eastern, Northern, Southern and Western parts were estimated to be 21.73%, 62.43%, 72.45% and 16.43
respectively. However, the recovery rate from the SARS-CoV-2 infection was 66.35% with Central, Western and Eastern
regions dominating with 99.12%, 99.26% and 84.32% rates respectively. Lastly, the overall Infection Fatality rate in Africa
was estimated to be 26.16%, while it carted across the Central, Eastern, Northern, Southern and Western regions with 15.3%,
20.4%, 31.6%, 39.4%, and 24.1% respectively.
Description
Keywords
Africa, Confirmed Cases, Infection Fatality Rate, SARS-CoV-2, SIERD model, Recovery Rate